KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 16, 2026 (98%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 4:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Before Dec 1, 202693%
Before Nov 15, 202699%
Before Oct 16, 202698%
Before Dec 15, 202699%
Before Nov 1, 202699%
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before Jan 1, 2027Lost
Before Dec 15, 2026Lost
Before Dec 1, 2026Lost
Before Nov 15, 2026Lost
Before Oct 16, 2026Won
Before Sep 16, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Gemini Pro model release
KalshiGemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)
Manifold MarketsWill Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Google releases Gemini 4 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Gemini
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
