KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 90%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$516.7
Liquidity
$16.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 8:48 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Gemini Pro model release
KalshiWill Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsGemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Google releases Gemini 4 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Gemini
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Google release Gemini 4??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Google release Gemini 4? resolve?
- When will Google release Gemini 4? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will Google release Gemini 4? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Google releases Gemini 4 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is When will Google release Gemini 4? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.