Current community forecast
Yes 70%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 16, 26, 3:28 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gemini 4 Pro gets released?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will Google release Gemini 4? · Before Jan 1, 2027 90%
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for google gemini 4.0 release by?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does google gemini 4.0 release by resolve?
- google gemini 4.0 release by is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- Where else is google gemini 4.0 release by listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.