Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
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Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released on?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition.
- Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
