Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 11:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No release by November 30 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No release by November 30 42%Leader of 32 outcomes
No release by November 30 42%Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$436.7
Liquidity
$9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.2K
Bid / Ask
— / —
No release by November 30Spread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 28, 26, 9:49 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No release by November 30
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.
