Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore September 2027 99%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
228
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 7, 25, 5:00 PMNov 30, 26, 5:57 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cgl2IP0yIC (this market)
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will OpenAI release GPT-6? · Before 2027 73%
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.4pt97%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
- $234.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+10.0pt95%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,-0.5pt89%
- October 31,+7.0pt81%
- October 15,+1.0pt66%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt10.7%
- Grok-3.7pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.1M
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani+4.0pt36%
- Pope Leo XIV-1.0pt17%
- Donald Trump+1.0pt14%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
GEMINIBMW Championship Winner
- Rory McIlroy16.3%
- Chris Gotterup9.3%
- Wyndham Clark8.4%
+30 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36K
- 24h Vol
- $34.1K
- Best AI this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- BTC price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- BTC price on August 31
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- New York Y vs Baltimore
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before September 2027 at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date resolve?
- GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
- Where else is GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.