Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 2:23 PM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 15, 2026, 4:56 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Before 20260%
Before February 20260%
Before March 20260%
Before April 20260%
Before May 20260%
Before June 20260%
Before July 20261%
Before August 20262.8%
Before September 20261.1%
Before October 2026100%
Before November 2026100%
Before December 2026100%
Before 2027100%
Before February 2027100%
Before March 2027100%
Before April 2027100%
Before May 2027100%
Before June 2027100%
Before July 2027100%
Before August 2027100%
Before September 2027100%
Before October 2027100%
Before November 2027100%
Before December 2027100%
Before 2028100%
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Rules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cgl2IP0yIC (this market)
