Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastBefore 2026 0%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
151
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleAug 7, 25, 5:00 PMAug 7, 26, 4:57 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before July 20261%
Also available on Kalshi
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
6mo
61%
-2.0%2%
23%
+5 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$60.9K
24h Vol$3.2K
KALSHIRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cgl2IP0yIC (this market)
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
$348.9KAnthropic: 91%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Best AI this week
$98.2KChatGPT: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
GPT-5.6 released by...?
$82KJuly 31: 99%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released on...?
$42.1KJuly 7: 70%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBest AI at the end of 2026?
$39.2KClaude: 60%KALSHI
KALSHI
Top AI model this week
$25.8Kclaude-fable-5: 4%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt
Google Unveils Gemini 3.5, Android 17 AI Features in June 2026Blockchain.News
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 5: Mid-Tier AI with Opus-Level FeaturesBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsTogether AI Raises $800M Series C for Open-Source AI PushBlockchain.NewsRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cgl2IP0yIC (this market)