Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
September 2 53%+26.0ptLeader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$17.6K
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
13.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 31, 26, 8:09 PMSep 15, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
