PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 65%-8.0ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$36.1K
Liquidity
$52K
High liquidityComments
69
7d Change
-1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 7, 25, 8:45 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
- GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference December 31, 2026 78% · 2 venues · 4 pt band
- Also available on Futuur — GPT-6 released by ...? · December 31, 2026 68%
- Also available on Gemini — GPT-6 released by...? · December 31, 2026 75%
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $185.5K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $198K
- 24h Vol
- $182.1K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GPT-6 released by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 65% as of August 22, 2026.
- When does GPT-6 released by which date? resolve?
- GPT-6 released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is GPT-6 released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is GPT-6 released by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Gemini.