Current implied probability
September 30 96%-1.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$46.3K
Liquidity
$104.4K
High liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingAug 14, 26, 9:46 PMOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- October 31+2.3pt99%
- September 30+3.5pt95%
- September 15+0.5pt89%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.2pt68%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.6%
- Grok+0.4pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.6M
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+21.5pt77%
- Moonshot-15.2pt13%
- Z.ai-7.0pt6%
+8 more outcomes
GEMINIBTC price on September 1
- $77,000 or above87.5%
- $77,250 or above74%
- $77,500 or above55%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.8K
- 24h Vol
- $36.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,95%
- October 31,-0.5pt90%
- October 15,-2.0pt68%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+2.5pt94%
- September 30-5.6pt81%
- September 2576%
+8 more outcomes
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released on?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+): Text Arena Debut?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 96% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date? resolve?
- Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).