KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 66.7%-5.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.4K
Liquidity
$8.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 5:30 PMSep 30, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
ChinaKALSHIChina vs USA
- USA+1.0pt97.1%
- China+1.0pt2.9%
- Total Vol
- $202.2K
- 24h Vol
- $112.2K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31-3.0pt93%
- December 31-4.8pt93%
- September 30-3.0pt92%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No-0.3pt95%
- Yes+0.3pt5%
- Total Vol
- $12.9M
- 24h Vol
- $40.9K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.1pt96%
- Yes-0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $36.9K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
- 33°C+6.0pt38%
- 32°C+4.5pt28.7%
- 31°C+4.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
- No+2.1pt96%
- Yes-2.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $337.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.3K
- TYLOO vs. TEC Esports
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- USA vs. China
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Valorant: TEC Esports vs TYLOO (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 5?
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: B8 vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Chinese AI Company this month?
- Kalshi prices Alibaba at 67% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Top Chinese AI Company this month resolve?
- Top Chinese AI Company this month is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Top Chinese AI Company this month settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.