Current implied probability
Chen Yu-jen 91.2%-1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.5K
Liquidity
$47K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 14, 26, 1:04 PM UTCNov 28, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner
PolymarketChanghua County Magistrate Election Winner
PolymarketNantou County Magistrate Election Winner
PolymarketWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
