KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityOpenAI 32%-5.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$121.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 9.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 5:01 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Alibaba9%
Compare venues· OpenAI
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 32% | +2pt | $1.2K | $121.6K | 23 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket70% match · auto | Medium | 30% | 0pt | $120.1 | $63.9K | 23 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
1.0 pts5mo
-1.0pt30%
-0.5pt24%
13%
+11 more outcomes
61 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$85.4K
24h Vol$120.1
POLYMARKETRules
If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.2kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.