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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

4.0% (24h)AITechYearly6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
xAI
xAI 16%-4.0%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$7.3

Liquidity

$1.2K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

16.0% / 18.0%

Spread

12.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Jan 1, 26, 5:01 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

xAI16%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

9.5%6mo
Google
Google
+9.5%56%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.5%36%
Meta
Meta
14%

+11 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$34.9K
24h Vol$531.8
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Yes: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

$1.1K
None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

$493.4
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

$250
Yes: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Rules

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.