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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

AITechOne-Off6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Google
Google 56%-0.5%
Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$464.9

Liquidity

$67K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

11.1%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Apr 30, 26, 7:30 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Google56%

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

1.0%6mo
xAI
xAI
+1.0%17%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-3.0%44%
Meta
Meta
20%

+9 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.6K
24h Vol$13.4
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
  • If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
  • If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.