Current implied probability
OpenAI 33%-4.0ptLeader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$92.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 30, 26, 7:24 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiWill a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
- The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
- If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31??
- Polymarket prices OpenAI at 33% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? resolve?
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.