KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
gemini-4-argon-high 54%Leader of 3 outcomes
gemini-4-argon-high 54%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.5K
Open interest
$18.5K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 5:30 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Rules for each outcome
- gemini-4-argon-high
- If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-opus-5.5-high
- If claude-opus-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-fable-5.1-max
- If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.