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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year?

AI capability growth this year?

9.0% (24h)AITechYearly6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
At least 1650 score
At least 1650 score 9%-9.0%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.5

Liquidity

$236.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 9.0%

Spread

50.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jan 6, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

At least 1650 score9%

Rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

AI capability growth before July?

AI capability growth before July?

$134.9
At least 1525 score: 7%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

$5.8K
Google: 14.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

$2K
Yes: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

$1.3K
None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

$558.9
ChatGPT: 15%KalshiKALSHI
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$364.7
Yes: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,864.79+2.49%SolanaSOL$65.45+2.97%EthereumETH$1,657.08+1.97%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.66%BNBBNB$599.68+2.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.91%

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Rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.