KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 1520 score 69%+3.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$51.3K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI capability growth this year??
- Kalshi prices At least 1520 score at 69% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does AI capability growth this year? resolve?
- AI capability growth this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is AI capability growth this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.