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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 78.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 9:53 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2028, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas
