Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85.7%
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2
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 9:27 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Incriminating misaligned AI models via distillation is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
