Current community forecast
No 83%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingNov 8, 23, 10:01 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAssuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItRules
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.
