What are the current odds for Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92.5% as of October 27, 2026.

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

One-OffAI13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 92.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Mar 24, 23, 5:16 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.

If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)