Current community forecast
No 65%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 16, 26, 1:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketWill any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.
- Audit Motion 002
- Will at least one frontier AI company publish recurring organizational governance metrics alongside capability benchmarks, in a single document, on or before 31 December 2026?
- Research Thesis
- This prediction tests whether frontier AI governance will evolve from policy disclosure toward performance disclosure.
- Frontier AI companies now routinely publish governance frameworks, responsible scaling policies, and regulatory compliance documents.
