Current community forecast
No 65%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 16, 26, 1:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.
- Audit Motion 002
- Will at least one frontier AI company publish recurring organizational governance metrics alongside capability benchmarks, in a single document, on or before 31 December 2026?
- Research Thesis
- This prediction tests whether frontier AI governance will evolve from policy disclosure toward performance disclosure.
- Frontier AI companies now routinely publish governance frameworks, responsible scaling policies, and regulatory compliance documents.
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? resolve?
- Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.