Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 72%
No 72%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$289.3
Low liquidityOpen interest
$629.2
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 12:04 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?
Manifold MarketsIn Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta.
- A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
- The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity.
