Current implied probability
No 52%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$91
Low liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 76.0%
Spread
56.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 12:04 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta.
- A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
- The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.6%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 52% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? resolve?
- Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.