Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 65.4%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 20, 24, 2:41 PM UTCJan 8, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK.
- Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.
- A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning.
- I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.
- Government grants and contracts do not count.
- The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035? resolve?
- Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2035.
- How is Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK.