Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.3%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
May 20, 24, 2:41 PM UTCJan 8, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK.
- Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.
- A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning.
- I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.
- Government grants and contracts do not count.
- The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control.
