Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 25, 7:55 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any two of the following AI companies merge by December 31, 2027:
- Google AI (DeepMind)
- Meta AI (Superintelligence Labs)
- A merger is defined as a transaction where one company acquires another, resulting in a single combined entity under unified ownership and control.
- Partnerships, joint ventures, minority stake acquisitions, or talent acquisitions alone do not necessarily count as mergers, however something that clearly constitutes a merger in all but name would count.
