PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 6:08 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Google5%
ByteDance2%
Moonshot5%
SpaceXAI2%
Alibaba2%
Amazon0%
Microsoft1%
DeepSeek1%
Meituan1%
Mistral5%
Meta1%
Baidu0%
Z.ai0%
AnthropicWon
OpenAIWon
AlibabaLost
AmazonLost
BaiduLost
ByteDanceLost
DeepSeekLost
GoogleLost
MeituanLost
MetaLost
MicrosoftLost
MistralLost
MoonshotLost
SpaceXAILost
Z.aiLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?
Manifold MarketsWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsRules
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced.
- The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns.
- A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments.
