PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Amazon · —
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Stored reference
Amazon 4%Leader of 15 outcomes
Amazon 4%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9.8K
Bid / Ask
— / —
AmazonSpread
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Comments
1
7d Change
-41.4 pts
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 12:22 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
AnthropicWon
OpenAIWon
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Amazon
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?
Manifold MarketsWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRules
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced.
- The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns.
- A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments.
