Current community forecast
No 83.4%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 10:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2027, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas-s0zyntZ0LI
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: