Current community forecast
No 73.7%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 10:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2027, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas-s0zyntZ0LI
