Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.2%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 25, 10:10 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
SimpleQA is an obscure trivia benchmark OpenAI uses to evaluate hallucination rate.
- Resolves yes if a Frontier model released by OpenAI declines to answer SimpleQA questions at least 5 times as often as it incorrectly answers them.
- To resolve yes, the model must not have access to the internet or any database of facts.
- I will be largely looking towards OpenAI's evaluations to resolve this market but will accept 3rd party evals if OpenAI stops using SimpleQA.
- OpenAI's latest frontier model GPT-5-thinking has only a 1:8 ratio.
- However, OpenAI claimed in a recent paper that they have new insights into why LLMs hallucinate and how to prevent them.
