Current community forecast
No 80.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 26, 3:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec830c-2f08-4b1a-b70f-7330f260753c
- Microsoft has announced their intention to train their own frontier LLM / foundation model, independent of OpenAI.
- Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, stated that Microsoft is now prioritizing the development of its own in-house "frontier foundation models." He described this as a move toward "true AI self-sufficiency" to reduce the company's near-total dependence on OpenAI for its flagship products.
- The reports highlight a model lineup referred to as MAI (including the MAI-1 preview mentioned in earlier contexts).
- These models are being trained on massive "gigawatt-scale compute" clusters and are expected to be released "sometime this year" (2026).
- Market resolves to YES if Microsoft succeeds in training and releasing their own frontier-level language model before the end of 2026.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026? resolve?
- Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec830c-2f08-4b1a-b70f-7330f260753c