KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Nov 1, 2026 80%+30.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Before Nov 1, 2026 80%+30.0ptMarket quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$13.1K
Liquidity
$16.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
14.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 2:00 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketGPT 6.1+ (OpenAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If an OpenAI product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenAITechCrunchThe VergeArs TechnicaWiredReutersBloomberg TechnologyThe InformationThe Wall Street Journal Technology sectionVentureBeatEngadgetThe New York Times Technology sectionAssociated Press Technology coverageAxios Technology newsletterPolitico Technology coverage
- The function must be live and processing user interactions, not explicitly labeled as "beta," "test," "experimental," "preview," or "early access" or similar, and officially acknowledged by the company through announcements, documentation, or help pages.
- Implementation includes direct integration into the product's interface, automatic application to user accounts, user-initiated activation through official controls, API implementation, or policy changes that operationally enforce the function.
- Announcements without deployment, employee-only testing, technical documentation without implementation, and third-party additions without authorization do not qualify.
- The implementation must occur in the United States unless otherwise specified.
- If it meets these conditions, it counts from the first date it is live for users outside the company, including in a gradual rollout or a waitlist, invitation-only, or paid-tier release.