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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

1.0% (24h)SportsAITechYearlyEsports6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
OpenAI
OpenAI 31%+1.0%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$39.5

Liquidity

$5.6K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

31.0% / 32.0%

Spread

3.2%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jan 3, 26, 3:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

OpenAI31%

Rules

If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If DeepSeek has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Google has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

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In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

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Rules

If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If DeepSeek has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Google has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.