Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 67.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 24, 9:17 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
How they might do a crypto airdrop I'll leave up to the imagination.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Manifold launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by Jan 1st, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" as long as the intention is to make them fungible at a later date.
- The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Manifold team.
