KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Exponent · —
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Stored price
Exponent 27.5%Leader of 14 outcomes
Exponent 27.5%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$144.1
Open interest
$26.2K
High open interestBid / Ask
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ExponentSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Exponent
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketWill Variational launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketWill Theo launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketWill Opensea launch a token by which date?
PolymarketWill Predict.fun launch a token by ___? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Pacifica launch a token by December 31, 2026?
LimitlessRules
If Exponent launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CoinDeskCoinTelegraphThe BlockDecryptDeFi LlamaCoinMarketCapCoinGeckoEtherscanPolygonscanArbiscanBase ExplorerSolscanBinance Chain Explorermajor cryptocurrency exchanges including BinanceCoinbaseKrakenOKXThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosThe InformationThe Wall Street Journal
- A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
Rules for each outcome
- Exponent
- If Exponent launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Arc
- If Arc launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ostium
- If Ostium launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Fomo
- If Fomo launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MetaMask
- If MetaMask launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Base
- If Base launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Phantom
- If Phantom launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- CME Group
- If CME Group launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Felix
- If Felix launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- OpenSea
- If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Rabby
- If Rabby launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tempo
- If Tempo launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Unit
- If Unit launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Abstract
- If Abstract launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.