KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Arc 41%+12.0ptLeader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$636.6
Liquidity
$23.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketWill Theo launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketWill Opensea launch a token by which date?
PolymarketWill Pacifica launch a token by December 31, 2026?
LimitlessWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
LimitlessWill Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CoinDeskCoinTelegraphThe BlockDecryptDeFi LlamaCoinMarketCapCoinGeckoEtherscanPolygonscanArbiscanBase ExplorerSolscanBinance Chain Explorermajor cryptocurrency exchanges including BinanceCoinbaseKrakenOKXThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosThe InformationThe Wall Street Journal
- A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing.
- This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value.
- NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
- If MetaMask launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Exponent launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+3.7pt100%
- $25M+6.0pt100%
- $50M+12.2pt99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,000 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,250 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- 72,000+1.0pt100%
- 74,000+0.9pt99%
- 76,000+5.3pt96%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBitcoin all time high by which date?
- December 31,-0.2pt7%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
- March 31,-0.3pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- LAPTOP listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 10?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will launch a token this year??
- Kalshi prices Arc at 41% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will launch a token this year? resolve?
- Who will launch a token this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will launch a token this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.