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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Crypto
  3. Who will launch a token this year?
Who will launch a token this year?

Who will launch a token this year?

2.0% (24h)One-OffCryptoExchangeAirdrop6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Arc
Arc 61%-2.0%
Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$1.2

Liquidity

$120.2

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

61.0% / 69.0%

Spread

13.1%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jan 3, 26, 3:00 PMDec 31, 26, 6:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Arc61%

Rules

If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing.
  • This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value.
  • NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
  • If MetaMask launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Exponent launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,940.03+2.50%EthereumETH$1,662.30+2.12%SolanaSOL$65.51+2.91%XRPXRP$1.12+1.33%DogecoinDOGE$0.0854+2.45%BNBBNB$602.19+2.91%

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Rules

If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing.
  • This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value.
  • NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
  • If MetaMask launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Exponent launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.