OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?
CryptoAIEthereumOne-OffTokenization / RWARegulationExchangeStablecoinAirdropTech4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 25, 9:08 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that OpenAI has directly issued (or caused a majority‑controlled subsidiary or special‑purpose entity to issue) a blockchain‑based crypto asset and sold it primarily to raise funds for OpenAI on or before 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2030.
- What counts (YES):
- A primary sale by OpenAI (as defined below) of a transferable, on‑chain asset (fungible or non‑fungible), including but not limited to a governance/utility token, security token (STO), tokenized note/debt, or stablecoin where proceeds are raised for OpenAI’s operations, R&D, infrastructure, or corporate purposes.
- A private placement or public sale (ICO/IEO/STO or equivalent), or an offering under exemptions (e.g., Reg D/Reg S) so long as the asset itself is on‑chain and the offering occurs by the deadline.
- A token‑warrant/SAFT that results in actual on‑chain token issuance and sale by the deadline (i.e., not just paper rights).
- What does not count (NO):