Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.9%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 25, 11:55 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
At the time of posting, litigation, led by Comcast and its subsidiaries, was underway against all of the leading AI music generation firms.
- On October 30, 2025, one of the firms, Udio, "settled" with the plaintiffs, and the terms of the settlement resulted in the effective closure of their service.
- Suno, another firm, is facing the same claims and engaged in largely the same behavior, but is defending itself with a different argument - that the labels have unclean hands because they engaged in an anticompetitive scheme to suppress AI generation for their own benefit, and is using discovery to try to prove that argument.
- If they cannot find evidence of this alleged scheme, they may shortly "settle" as well.
- This market will resolve to YES if, on Halloween 2026, it is not possible to generate music of the same quality for the same or lower price as it was on October 30, 2025 before Udio closed, download it in a lossless format, and possess full ownership and distribution rights.
- The "price" might be a subscription fee, or per-track.