Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 93.4% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? resolve?

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.

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KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$81.3K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.6pt52.7%
• Gemini-2.3pt35.4%
• ChatGPT-1.3pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 675T tokens+16.0pt99.5%
• Above 650T tokens+33.0pt99.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T28.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.6pt19.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.1pt18.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$46.3K

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