Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 26, 7:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
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KalshiTop Text to Image AI this week
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.