Current implied probability
OpenAI 81%+14.0ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$7.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 12:15 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
PolymarketTop Text to Image AI this week
KalshiWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).