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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 2:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 55.2%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 43 minutes ago
Feb 3, 26, 5:16 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
As in, did they pretrain and post train the image generation model that is first made available in one of their main products like claude.ai, claude code, claude cowork, etc. Resolves NO if they eg use a Google model to generate images, even if anthropic customized the model for their preferred usecase(s)
- Note: if unknown / ambiguous, will likely let independent mods resolve the market in whatever way they find most sensible
- Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic does not release image generation capability in 2025, the market close time will be extended beyond the current 2026-12-31 date.
- Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's close time will be extended if Anthropic doesn't release image generation capability in 2025 (in addition to the differences in resolution criteria compared to the linked market).