Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 3:08 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
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KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
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FutuurRules
Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.
- A de facto ban is decided by what is, by reasonable likelihood causally linked to legislation, a significant lagging of the respective country's open frontier relative to it's prior trend is considered a "ban".
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-20.5pt62%
- November 30,-26.5pt51%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $201.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt12.8%
- Gemini+2.1pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $178.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+44.0pt91%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $197.4K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $231.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States resolve?
- Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.