Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
AIOne-Off4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.9%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Apr 8, 25, 7:50 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
- Must be a state of the art model, used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- Update 2025-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will likely defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation if he writes about this topic in the future.
- Otherwise, the guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are unable to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- The creator stated this would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) resolve?
- Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander