What are the current odds for Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 71.6% as of October 25, 2026.

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

AIOne-Off2y

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Current community forecast

No 71.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

May 4, 24, 6:39 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) is the standard neural network design in modern deep learning.

If a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model is confirmed to be created without the use of MLPs by 2029, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Qualifying models
To qualify, a model must not use Multi-Layer Perceptrons at all.
For the purposes of this market, an MLP is a series of 3 or more layers of nodes, where the nodes in each middle layer take a weighted sum of the outputs of the previous layer, apply a nonlinearity, and output the result.
One example of a non-MLP neural network design is Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (see this market, which this one is heavily based on).