Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Oct 22, 25, 1:43 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- This would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
- This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
- If in doubt I'll make the call.
