Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastQ3-Q4 2024 93.1%+3.9ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.9 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 23, 11:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
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KalshiOpen source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter)
KalshiTop Open Source AI this week
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KalshiRules
"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.
- But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).
- Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.
