Current community forecast
Yes 87.3%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingAug 30, 26, 6:29 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.
- Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below).
- This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released around the time AI 2027 projected.
- This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of March 2027.
- The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later.
- Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now
