KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 95%+3.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Claude 95%+3.0ptMarket quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Open interest
$3.1K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 5, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If Gemini is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Claude
- If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Gemini
- If Gemini is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ChatGPT
- If ChatGPT is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qwen
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Grok
- If Grok is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dola
- If Dola is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- GLM
- If GLM is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kimi
- If Kimi is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MiniMax
- If MiniMax is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.