Current community forecast
Google 71.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+55.1 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 26, 5:19 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
PolymarketTop coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
KalshiRules
Which organization will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard (formerly LMArena) at the end of October 2026?
- Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text, in its default view as the site displays it.
- How it resolves:
- Resolves to the organization credited with the model in the #1 position (highest displayed score) as of 11:59pm Pacific Time, October 31, 2026.
- I will check the live page on Nov 1 and use an archive.org snapshot from Oct 31/Nov 1 if there is any dispute.
- The organization is the one arena.ai lists for the model.