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Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Chainlink Corporate ActionsOne-OffAI5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 8:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

OpenAI / ChatGPT 70%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

13

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale

Nov 27, 25, 9:46 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

OpenAI / ChatGPT70%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit.

If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.
If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.
If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count.
If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.
Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.

Volume trend

$36

Jul 163d of dataJul 18

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When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

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Rules

Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit.

If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.
If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.
If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count.
If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.
Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.