Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
ChainlinkCorporate ActionsOne-OffAI2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAnthropic / Claude 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 27, 25, 9:46 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit.
- If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.
- If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.
- If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count.
- If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.
- Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.
