Current community forecast
National 65.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 6:39 AM UTCDec 24, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
PolymarketWill the CAQ still form the government after QC general election in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
PolymarketNew Zealand general election winner?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The election will be held on 7 November 2026.
- The market resolves to whichever main party (National or Labour) forms the government following the election.
- A party must demonstrate to the Governor-General that they have the confidence of the House by securing a majority of votes in a confidence motion and getting a budget through parliament.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Governor-General and the New Zealand government regarding which party leader is appointed Prime Minister.
- See: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/ and https://gg.govt.nz/
Open markets
ChainlinkKALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)-3.0pt47%
- Ethereum (ETH)-4.0pt41%
- Bitcoin (BTC)38%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $689.2K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+12 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
- ↑ 12+48.0pt100%
- ↑ 1451%
- ↓ 1051%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Haven (YC S23)?
- Less than $10M or bankrupt64.7%
- $10M - $100M12.6%
- $100M - $1B12.6%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $50
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Denmark and Germany be completed by 2030?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Total Vol
- $315.5
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Chatter (YC S23)?
- $10M - $100M45.4%
- Less than $10M or bankrupt44.5%
- $100M - $1B6.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.8
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
- Manifold Markets prices National at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election resolve?
- Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election is scheduled to resolve on December 24, 2026.
- How is Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria