Current community forecast
Labour 52%+9.4pt
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 6:39 AM UTCDec 24, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?
Manifold MarketsWho will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?
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KalshiWho will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?
KalshiWill the CAQ still form the government after QC general election in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The election will be held on 7 November 2026.
- The market resolves to whichever main party (National or Labour) forms the government following the election.
- A party must demonstrate to the Governor-General that they have the confidence of the House by securing a majority of votes in a confidence motion and getting a budget through parliament.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Governor-General and the New Zealand government regarding which party leader is appointed Prime Minister.
- See: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/ and https://gg.govt.nz/