Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?
PoliticsOne-OffChessUS PoliticsElectionSports6mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
National 0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 2:00 AM UTCMar 15, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
- A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government.
- This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
- A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test.
- A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand??
- Kalshi prices National at 0% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand? resolve?
- Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand? is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2027.
- How is Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.