Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
One-OffPoliticsElectionChessUS PoliticsSports3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Labour Party 68%+4.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$375.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 72.0%
Spread
68.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 11:43 PMNov 7, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Labour Party68%
Volume trend
$15Jul 58d of dataJul 22
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
- A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
- Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.