Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?
2.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsChessUS PoliticsElectionSports2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLabour 55%+2.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 9:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
An answer resolve yes if a coalition that includes the party listed in an answer makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027.Outcome verified from New Zealand Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and Politico.
- This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
- A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government.
- This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
- A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test.
- A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description.