What are the current odds for Which parties will be part of the next Italian government??

Manifold Markets prices Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) at 76.4% as of October 19, 2026.

Which parties will be part of the next Italian government?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) 76.4%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Jan 7, 26, 6:49 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 6:47 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

The next Italian general election will occur no later than 22 December 2027, though it may be called earlier as a snap election.
Each answer resolves YES if that party is part of the government coalition formed following the election.
Parties that are not part of the government coalition resolve NO.
If a party dissolves or merges before the election, it resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the Italian President's office or the Prime Minister regarding coalition composition.
The Meloni government is the current government of the Italian Republic, headed by Giorgia Meloni, leader of Brothers of Italy, and was sworn in on 22 October 2022.